Research

Displaying 1 - 7 of 7

World War’s Winners and Losers

Participants’ Economic Gains and Losses in Terms of Gross Domestic Product

Gains and Losses in Global GDP Share for World War I (1914-1918)

Who won the First and the Second World Wars? History says German lost both, and the United States of America won both. Economic data supports the historic record. Comparing participants by their share of global GDP, or gross domestic product, I’ve identified which countries benefited most from either world war.

The First World War

...

The Imploding G7

If the European Union Were a Business, Its Investors Would Put It up for Sale

Major European economies in sharp decline relative to the world

Comparing each state’s relative share of the global economy, or its ‘market share’ as measured by its gross domestic product (GDP), I noticed four of the G7 states have been steadily losing their share since at least 1900. They are the four largest European economies of Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom. Much unlike the US,...

The Changing Face of the U.S. Economy

This Graphs Shows What Open Borders Are Doing to America

Graph 1. U.S. Population: Whites vs. Non-Whites (1900-2015)

The blue line in the graph above shows how the total U.S. population has developed since 1900. The red line represents white people’s share of the population (not counting Hispanics). The graph shows that America been a white Christian nation for a long time, at least up until 1960, when U.S. demographics suddenly began to change.

Since 1980, the aging white...

The West versus the Rest

Diminishing Western Power as an Incentive for War?

Share of Global GDP for the West and the Rest (1960-2015)

How do civilizations compare economically? Dividing up the world into roughly nine civilizations,1 we can sum their member nations’ gross domestic product (GDP). This allows us to track a civilization’s share of the global economy over time.

Economists have long questioned the use of GDP as a...

The World Population Bubble

We Can Still Cancel the Apocalypse

Sisteen chapel painting by Leonardo DaVinci

“We, at the height, are ready to decline.” — Shakespeare

Civilizations come and go. History recorded the rise and fall of dozens of peoples and their societies, among others Ancient Egypt, Old Greece, the Roman Empire, and more recently, the Third Reich and the Soviet Union. So, we, at the height, have to wonder: Is the modern world immune to collapse? The possibility that it might not be spells worry. In his book The Collapse of Complex Societies (...

The Bubble Index

Where Bitcoin Will Go Next

According to the latest financial research stock bubbles are the result of endogenous factors, such as positive feedback loops or simply monkey see monkey do. We can apply this research to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency prices.

Mid November 2013 I was able to correctly predict Bitcoin’s imminent December crash using a Log-Periodic Power Law (LPPL) oscillations tool. I had asked T. Taylor of The Bubble Index ...

Predicting the next Bitcoin Crash

...but by Christmas 2014 the Price Might Go over $1,600!

Bitcoin 2013 price prediction

Can Bitcoin crashes be predicted? Short answer: yes. Long answer: assuming that Bitcoin prices follow an exponential growth pattern we can apply statistical regression analysis to forecast data. Regression means to fit the data to the most accurate model. This allows to predict the chance of a crash by looking at how much Bitcoin’s prices differ from statistically expected values. Bitcoin’s current (November 2013) prices overshoot expected values by 100%. A price correction seems imminent.

I...